Energy market summary: July 2024

This week's latest on the UK & EU gas, UK power & renewables and the oil & carbon markets which has been provided by PPAYA. Carter Jonas partner with PPAYA to provide brokerage services including export PPAs.

Power Curves large Jul 24

Weather

Although temperatures in the UK and mainland Europe are below seasonal norms, a slight warm-up is anticipated over the next two days. However, following this brief respite, forecasts suggest another dip in temperatures.

Gas

The UK front-month gas is trading at 77.2p/th, while W24 and S25 are at 97.9p/th and 91p/th, respectively. The EU TTF front-month gas price has fallen to its lowest level since mid-May, clearing at around €33/MWh. Prices remained relatively stable over the weekend, with Norwegian gas flows meeting expectations.

UK Power & Renewables

The UK front-month power is trading at £69/MWh, while W24 and S25 are at £88/MWh and £77.5/MWh, respectively. Prices cleared low over the weekend due to strong wind speeds and cooler temperatures driving the market down. However, prices have since rebounded to normal weekday levels, clearing above £80/MWh. Wind speeds are expected to remain above seasonal norms over the next few days before decreasing by the end of the week.

Oil & Carbon

Crude oil is trading at $86.3/bbl, holding steady on Monday morning as discussions around Gaza ease concerns about Middle East tensions. Prices have remained stable despite a major tropical storm approaching Texas, closing most ports in the state. Meanwhile, EUAs and UK carbon credits are trading at €70.4/t and £45/t, respectively.

Labour Party News

Ed Miliband has been appointed as Energy Secretary and is anticipated to outline his vision for the energy market under a Labour government in the coming weeks. Announcements on planning reform and regulatory changes are expected.