Top 10 locations for build to sell development in England

The need for new homes across England has been clear for many years now and owner occupation is a desire for many. Having said that, the proportion of households in owner occupation has been rapidly declining since reaching a peak of 70.9% in 2003. In 2021/22 there are now estimated to be 15.56 million owner occupiers, equivalent to 64.3% of all households in England (English Housing Survey 2021/22).

Source: English Housing Survey

A key reason often cited for the decline in owner occupation is the unaffordability of purchasing a new home. While the government has tried to intervene on this issue by helping people to purchase a home through the likes of shared ownership and the recently wound-up Help to Buy, many would argue that these interventions have only fuelled demand and increased house prices overall.

Source: ONS

What is really needed is supply-side stimulus which is a complex issue which we don’t attempt to answer in this report, what we have done here is examined a set of key variables to help housebuilders and developers decide where would be the most attractive areas for a build to sell development, based on sustained demand-side conditions.

Variables used, which have been weighted according to their importance to the build to sell market

• Average earnings per annum

• Affordability index

• Proportion of population over 65 years

• Deprivation index

• House price forecasts

• 10-year employment growth forecasts

• Household growth forecasts

• Growth of those 20-39 years

• Growth of those over 65 years

• Projected growth of private renters

• Future affordability forecasts

• Net additional dwellings as proportion of all households

• Private rented households forecast as proportion of all households

Top 10 locations for new homes development in England

Of the top 10 locations there is a mix of regions including one in the South West, one in the West Midlands, three across the East of England and five in the South East:

The need for housing is so high and the desire for owner occupation is so strong that it almost goes without saying that a build to sell development in this country should do well just about anywhere, but the areas above have come out on top according to our criteria. Clearly there are other factors at play that a builder and developer must consider (land costs, greenbelt land and supply pipeline, to name a few) but all else being equal these areas are showing the greatest potential for a build to sell development scheme.